Pre-tourney Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#35
Expected Predictive Rating+9.3#60
Pace73.0#99
Improvement-0.1#185

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#70
First Shot+3.4#81
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#94
Layup/Dunks+4.2#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#127
Freethrows-0.5#211
Improvement-0.3#193

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#23
First Shot+6.0#28
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#65
Layups/Dunks-2.1#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#2
Freethrows+0.8#112
Improvement+0.2#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.1% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.1% n/a n/a
Average Seed 9.8 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.7% n/a n/a
First Round65.1% n/a n/a
Second Round32.2% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen9.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight3.3% n/a n/a
Final Four1.1% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.3% n/a n/a
National Champion0.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 10 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 335   Prairie View W 75-50 99%     1 - 0 +8.7 -5.8 +13.2
  Nov 16, 2015 227   Radford W 92-74 95%     2 - 0 +11.2 +9.3 +0.8
  Nov 20, 2015 17   Duke L 71-79 35%     2 - 1 +7.7 -2.8 +11.0
  Nov 22, 2015 33   Wisconsin L 73-74 49%     2 - 2 +10.9 +6.2 +4.7
  Nov 25, 2015 311   American W 72-44 98%     3 - 2 +15.1 +1.6 +15.7
  Nov 28, 2015 118   Old Dominion W 76-67 86%     4 - 2 +9.2 +13.4 -3.2
  Dec 02, 2015 130   @ Middle Tennessee W 62-56 73%     5 - 2 +11.3 -10.5 +21.4
  Dec 06, 2015 46   Florida St. L 71-76 55%     5 - 3 +5.6 -4.8 +10.9
  Dec 15, 2015 55   @ Georgia Tech L 64-77 46%     5 - 4 -0.3 -6.4 +6.7
  Dec 19, 2015 32   Cincinnati L 63-69 60%     5 - 5 +3.2 +4.0 -1.4
  Dec 22, 2015 136   Buffalo W 90-69 88%     6 - 5 +20.0 +3.4 +13.4
  Dec 27, 2015 280   Liberty W 85-57 97%     7 - 5 +17.5 +12.7 +6.8
  Dec 30, 2015 178   North Florida W 80-68 92%     8 - 5 +8.2 -2.9 +10.8
  Jan 02, 2016 196   George Mason W 71-47 93%     9 - 5 1 - 0 +19.0 -2.2 +21.5
  Jan 05, 2016 44   @ Saint Joseph's W 85-82 43%     10 - 5 2 - 0 +16.6 +7.3 +8.9
  Jan 10, 2016 211   @ Saint Louis W 72-56 87%     11 - 5 3 - 0 +15.7 +3.9 +12.1
  Jan 13, 2016 148   Fordham W 88-54 89%     12 - 5 4 - 0 +32.1 +23.1 +11.9
  Jan 16, 2016 103   @ Richmond W 94-89 OT 64%     13 - 5 5 - 0 +12.9 +4.0 +8.0
  Jan 20, 2016 151   Duquesne W 93-71 90%     14 - 5 6 - 0 +19.9 +14.2 +4.7
  Jan 24, 2016 83   St. Bonaventure W 84-76 77%     15 - 5 7 - 0 +11.9 +5.6 +5.8
  Jan 29, 2016 105   @ Davidson W 79-69 65%     16 - 5 8 - 0 +17.8 -1.5 +18.5
  Feb 03, 2016 250   @ La Salle W 88-70 90%     17 - 5 9 - 0 +15.5 +17.8 -1.7
  Feb 06, 2016 72   George Washington L 69-72 75%     17 - 6 9 - 1 +1.8 -3.8 +5.7
  Feb 11, 2016 162   @ Massachusetts L 63-69 80%     17 - 7 9 - 2 -3.1 -6.5 +3.3
  Feb 13, 2016 211   Saint Louis W 85-52 94%     18 - 7 10 - 2 +26.8 +11.4 +15.0
  Feb 16, 2016 90   Rhode Island W 83-67 79%     19 - 7 11 - 2 +19.3 +10.2 +8.6
  Feb 19, 2016 103   @ Richmond W 87-74 64%     20 - 7 12 - 2 +20.9 +15.5 +5.6
  Feb 24, 2016 196   @ George Mason L 69-76 85%     20 - 8 12 - 3 -6.2 -4.3 -1.7
  Feb 27, 2016 72   @ George Washington W 69-65 54%     21 - 8 13 - 3 +14.7 +3.6 +11.3
  Mar 02, 2016 105   Davidson W 70-60 82%     22 - 8 14 - 3 +12.0 -0.2 +13.1
  Mar 05, 2016 58   @ Dayton L 67-68 OT 48%     22 - 9 14 - 4 +11.3 -5.0 +16.4
  Mar 11, 2016 162   Massachusetts W 85-70 86%     23 - 9 +15.0 +5.4 +8.2
  Mar 12, 2016 105   Davidson W 76-54 74%     24 - 9 +26.9 +9.2 +20.2
  Mar 13, 2016 44   Saint Joseph's L 74-87 54%     24 - 10 -2.3 +3.0 -5.2
Projected Record 24.0 - 10.0 14.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 70.1% 70.1% 9.8 0.0 0.6 6.2 15.5 31.7 16.0 0.1 29.9 70.1%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 70.1% 0.0% 70.1% 9.8 0.0 0.6 6.2 15.5 31.7 16.0 0.1 29.9 70.1%